Rossman's second Oscar paper is about audiences and prizes. Some producers really want to win Oscars.
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These producers would also, presumably, like to make money. The problem is that audiences don't like most movies that are "Academy Award movies" -- here defined as late-year releases about serious subjects (like AIDS, slavery, or technological dystopia) -- so the business of making an Oscar-y movie is high-risk with dubiously high reward.
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Rossman explains it well:
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It turns out that audiences dislike movies that are *trying* to get Oscar nominations but really like movies that actually *get* Oscar nominations. By inference, if there were no Oscars to drive box office towards them, there would be far fewer movies about historical protagonists overcoming oppression.
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Indeed, it looks like Hollywood basically nails it since they make exactly the right number of Oscar-targeted movies that the two effects balance out on average.
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To the victors go the spoils, kind of.
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Best Picture winners can expect a 22 percentraise in box office after a nomination and another 15 percent bump if they win, according to IBISWorld.
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But the financial calculations probably miss the best reasons to try to make an Oscar movie: To win accolades within the industry, to win access to stars who can make you more money down the line and, just maybe, to bask in the honor of making a truly great film.
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